A Low-Carbon Roadmap for the Global Potash and Phosphate Fertiliser Industry

Overview
Project Summary Document

TCRS 21098

Status Approved

Location

Regional

Business Sector

Manufacturing and Services

Notice Type

Public

PSD Disclosed

11 Apr 2025

A growing global population and increased incomes are projected to lead to a 50% increase in demand for food by 2050 compared to 2012 levels. Fertilisers will need to play a pivotal role in meeting this increased demand, while also contributing to the global reduction in GHG emissions and support realising other sustainable development goals. Fertilisers are a significant contributor to GHG emissions, with an estimated 2.5% of global GHG emissions stemming from fertiliser production (1.3% from ammonia), distribution, and use. With increasing global production and application of fertilisers, the fertiliser industry must address the challenge of mitigating its GHG emissions while keeping pace with evolving global demand.

Fertiliser consumption is now six times larger than it was sixty years ago. This significant increase in the volume of fertiliser has contributed to the global food systems’ ability to provide for a growing global population. Despite these benefits, such rapid expansion in fertiliser production has implications on local environments and the global climate.

Nitrogen fertiliser production, which starts with ammonia production, is particularly energy-intensive and is primarily produced using fossil fuel feedstock. In 2021, EBRD together with IFA and IEA developed the global low-carbon pathway (LCP) for ammonia production (also referred to as the Ammonia Technology Roadmap) which became the basis for the development of national LCPs in countries including Egypt, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan.

In addition, the global Ammonia Technology Roadmap, along with a report on Reducing Emissions from Fertilizer Use which IFA published with Systemiq, helped significantly inform the development of SBTi’s sectoral decarbonization approach (SDA) draft guidance for the chemical sector, which focuses on seven primary chemicals including ammonia. However, the lack of an equivalent roadmap for non-ammonia fertiliser products limits organizations like SBTi to provide decarbonization target setting guidance for potash, phosphate, and other fertilisers that do not have ammonia components in their production. Potash and phosphate comprised 42% of global fertiliser consumption in 2022.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the “EBRD”), proposes a partnership with the International Fertiliser Association (“IFA”) to develop a roadmap for the global potash and phosphate fertiliser industry. The proposed collaboration will draw on the strengths of both organisations and builds upon previous collaboration on global and national sectoral low-carbon pathways for the nitrogen fertiliser sector.

The IFA is uniquely positioned to help guide the fertiliser industry to balance global food demands with the need to address climate change. With 480 members globally, including 50% from emerging and developing countries, the IFA can work with its members to instil a sense of ownership for the project while receiving their inputs throughout the project’s development. IFA’s members are also diverse with respect to sub-sectors within the fertiliser industry, with producers of plant nutrients for agriculture and technical products for industrial applications all represented. IFA’s Decarbonization Working Group, featuring over 50 members including the world’s largest phosphate and potash producers, has expressed eagerness for the development of new technical resources to support large-scale emissions reductions.

As was the case for the Ammonia Technology Roadmap, EBRD will help to ensure this project’s outputs and recommendations are financially feasible. The Bank’s countries of operations span from North Africa to Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This varied geography will aid the organisations’ collaboration by ensuring that the identified solutions are applicable to a variety of stakeholders and economic conditions. EBRD’s countries of operation include some of the most significant producers of phosphates and potash. Morocco holds 70% of global phosphate reserves, making it the dominant player. Tunisia and Egypt also contribute significantly to phosphate production. In the EBRD region, Jordan stands out as the leading potash producer, while Türkiye is the largest consumer and importer of both phosphates and potash. Central Asia is also an important source of both potash and phosphates.

The key aim of this project is to identify both the policy and technology development and deployment actions needed to achieve a sustainable low-carbon future of the global potash and phosphates fertiliser industry, reducing or mitigating the impacts of the industry’s future development on climate change by progressing toward net zero emissions. Furthermore, this project would also be developed in an international climate policy and industrial competitiveness and food security context. Specifically, the objectives of this project are to:

a) Conduct a background analysis and articulate the potash and phosphates fertiliser industry’s baseline with respect to energy performance and carbon intensity (Scope 1, 2 & 3). The current impacts, technologies employed, and global market conditions of the potash and phosphates fertiliser industry will also be assessed. Particular attention should be given to EBRD’s countries of operation where phosphates and potash fertiliser production and consumption is most prevalent (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Türkiye, Central Asia).

b) Undertake a full and documented stakeholder engagement process through consultation with relevant stakeholders aimed to solicit a broad spectrum of views from industry, civil society and other stakeholders in the identification and articulation of mitigation solutions. This engagement should seek to build a sense of ownership for implementing the roadmap amongst industry representatives and affiliates. The consultant is expected to put forward innovative approaches to stakeholder engagement and dissemination of the work to maximise the impact of the roadmap. Stakeholders from key EBRD countries of operation should be included in the process.

c) Establish a roadmap for a sustainable low-carbon future of the global potash and phosphates fertiliser industry to 2050 to contribute to the Paris Agreement goals while ensuring food security (UN SDG 2), through a combination of introducing technologies and increased levels of enforcement of regulations. Develop examples of best practice in fertiliser production, as well as case studies of potential or realised low-carbon fertiliser transition.

d) Build consensus amongst stakeholders that leads to the long-term acceptance of the low-carbon roadmap, with the aim for the roadmap to be recognised by organisations such as SBTi and TPT in development of sector guidance.

e) Develop indicators and metrics for assessing and monitoring the industry’s performance in implementing the roadmap’s vision and recommendations.

The project will provide essential analysis and vision with a focus on the production phase of fertilisers, as well as recognising and analysing the impact of different practices in the use phase of fertilisers on the demand for such commodities. The analysis will point out additional areas of research and analysis in the use phase of fertilisers for potential subsequent efforts.

Understanding Transition

Further information regarding the EBRD’s approach to measuring transition impact is available here.

Business opportunities

For business opportunities or procurement, contact the client company.

For business opportunities with EBRD (not related to procurement) contact:

Tel: +44 20 7338 7168
Email: projectenquiries@ebrd.com

For state-sector projects, visit EBRD Procurement:

Tel: +44 20 7338 6794
Email: procurement@ebrd.com

TCRS 21098

Status Approved

Location

Regional

Business Sector

Manufacturing and Services

Notice Type

Public

PSD Disclosed

11 Apr 2025

Understanding Transition

Further information regarding the EBRD’s approach to measuring transition impact is available here.

Business opportunities

For business opportunities or procurement, contact the client company.

For business opportunities with EBRD (not related to procurement) contact:

Tel: +44 20 7338 7168
Email: projectenquiries@ebrd.com

For state-sector projects, visit EBRD Procurement:

Tel: +44 20 7338 6794
Email: procurement@ebrd.com

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A Low-Carbon Roadmap for the Global Potash and Phosphate Fertiliser Industry

Understanding Transition

Business opportunities

Understanding Transition

Business opportunities