Short-term effects of house prices on birth rates

By Cevat Giray Aksoy

This paper explores the effects of house prices on birth rates. Existing studies find, at the aggregate level, that as house prices go up, so does the birth rate. But taking evidence from a country with a highly regulated housing market (England) this paper suggests otherwise: that if house prices go up, the birth rate increases among home owners but decreases among renters. Once calculated at the mean home ownership rate the net effect is a fall in birth rates. Our findings imply that local real estate market conditions may potentially change the age structure and population dynamics of a country, including many emerging markets and transition countries.